Why the Lakers should win

Knowing that the Nuggets are armed and dangerous, the Lakers will avoid sleepwalking through ball games. No more 20-point deficits in the first quarter. No more late lapses of concentration that will dissipate hard-won double-digit leads. No more questions about L.A.'s killer instinct.

Denver's defense received unmerited praise for so easily unsaddling the Mavericks. In truth, however, too many of the Mavs were slow, predictable and insufficiently athletic — like Erick Dampier, Jason Kidd and Jason Terry. So Denver's unexpected wing double-teams plagued the Mavs and created plenty of turnovers and poor shots.

But the Lakers' overall team speed, well-rehearsed trap-releases and savvy ball-reversals should trump the Nuggets' overloaded defenses and produce open shots and layups. Just remember how Phil Jackson's Bulls sliced up the same kind of defensive tactics employed by George Karl's Sonics in the 1996 NBA Finals.

Not that the current Lakers are nearly as good as the Jordanesque Bulls, but L.A. will certainly have answers for what still is Karl's favorite defensive tweak.

With Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, the Lakers should be able to control their defensive glass and deny the put-backs and extra shots that Denver managed against Dallas. L.A. will also apply more pressure on their offensive glass than Denver has seen so far in the playoffs.

Chris Andersen's shot-menacing whereabouts will always be on L.A.'s radar. In fact, Andersen's propensity to track the ball will be used to the Lakers' advantage by suckering him out of position and then passing the ball to an open big behind him.

Odom and Gasol can successfully attack Kenyon Martin's overly-aggressive defense, especially in L.A. Expect K-Mart to continually be in early foul trouble on the road.

Chauncey Billups' excellent man-to-man defense shouldn't bother Derek Fisher since the Lakers' point guards usually get their shots within the context of the triangle offense and are hardly ever put into iso situations.

Dahntay Jones will try to pressure Kobe Bryant but will also be tagged with early fouls. Too bad for Denver that Jones is their only player who has any chance of making life difficult for Kobe. (Kobe will utterly destroy Melo's improved but still inadequate speed-defense!) Indeed, watch Kobe repeatedly get into the paint and make good things happen for the Lakers.

Kobe's been there, done that and until proven otherwise, remains on a level of excellence that 'Melo has yet to reach.

Gasol and Bynum can both run with Nene, who will nevertheless stubbornly force at least five shots per game.

The Lakers will avoid quick shots and work the triangle for at least 20 seconds whenever they're forced to play half-court basketball. Since Denver plays defense in the starting blocks, they'll be much too eager to get out and go for them to hunker down and defend for that long.

Trevor Ariza's quickness should limit Carmelo Anthony's catches and also challenge his every dribble. For a different look, Odom's length will force 'Melo to pull in his game and also to force some shots.

The Lakers' defensive transition will likely limit the damage Denver can inflict on the run. Plus, the Lakers will undoubtedly tag the Nuggets' most proficient perimeter shooters in early offense situations.

Look for L.A.'s defenders to aggressively close out Denver's long-range bombers, to discourage 3-point shots and force them to drive the ball into the bosom of the Lakers' long-armed defense.

The Lakers' defensive scheme is much more coordinated than Denver's.

Overall, the Lakers' most significant advantage is their pressure and playoff experience.

THE LAKERS SHOULD WIN IN 7.

Credits: Charley Rosen

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